Confidence is the key. We’ve heard it time and time again. Rafael Nadal has it. Roger Federer… used to have it. After falling to Ivo Karlovic, the closest thing the ATP Tour has to a gimmick now that Fabrice Santoro is calling it quits, Federer seems to be in a perpetual state of free falling. The shots he missed in each of the first and third set tie breakers were the type of errors we haven’t seen from Federer in nearly five years. His forehand, once considered the best shot in all of tennis, looked feeble when accompanied by its inconsistency. There is no doubt in my mind that the embarrassing loss at Roland Garros coupled with the heart wrenching defeat at Wimbledon have taken the highest toll on the psyche of Roger Federer. Something else that won’t help the now fragile mind of Federer: after Nadal wins this week’s title in Cincinnati (and he will), Nadal will assume his rightful position at number one. But what I can’t help but constantly be baffled over is when I will first see Roger Federer’s name in a draw with the number “2” parked next to it.
Fed needs to worry more about his loss to Simon and near-loss to Ginepri (in Cincinnati) than his defeat to Karlovic: Fed got in 68% of his 1st serves in, hit 35 more winners than unforced errors, and when a guy gets 71% of 1st serves in, throws in 22 aces to just one double fault, and doesn’t lose a point on serve in either tie break, you pat him on the back and move on.
Rog was likely gonna lose the number one ranking in mid-August anyway when the points came off for Montreal and Cincinnati. Losing number one this week, three weeks before the Open, might be easier on him than right after the Olympics; at least he’ll have time for the attention to die a little before NYC.
I guess the point is how poorly, mentally, he played those two tie breaks against a player in Karlovic who has the fitness level of a 35 year old. Karlovic was just blasting shots on Fed’s serve just hoping to get to that 3rd set breaker. Before going into that match he was 8-1 all time in breakers against Karlovic. Dr. Ivo did nothing different than usual, and usually, Fed kicks his ass. Any loss to anyone before a final has to be a huge blow when you’re used to being on center court in the finals week after week. If he doesn’t win the Olympics, he can forget about the Open and probably say goodbye to being number one ever again.