My sincere condolences to anyone unfortunate enough to have witnessed Spain’s penalty win over Italy this past Sunday.  In what was billed as the premier matchup of the Quarter-Finals, a showdown between two traditional powerhouses,  22 world-class players slogged through 120 minutes of impossibly dour, scoreless soccer and bored even die-hard fans of the game to tears.  Those with an already bleak view of the sport will certainly not have been impressed, but in truth this matchup was a rare lowlight in what has otherwise been an exceptionally compelling tournament.

In the two weeks since Euro2008 began, those dedicated enough to have seen a majority of games have been treated to more than a few unexpected surprises, including a Dutch team which dominated the so-called “Group of Death” by annihilating both finalists from the last World Cup by a cumulative score of 7-1, and a thrilling upset of Germany by the Croatians.

But the biggest shocks of the tournament have come courtesy of Turkey and Russia.  Neither team was expected to emerge from the group stage, but both are now only a win away from what would be an historic final for either country.  Both have overcome tremendous odds to reach the semis, and now dates await with Germany and Spain, respectively.  Let’s take a look at each team’s path to the Semi-Finals and see how the underdogs stack up:

Weds 6/25 - Germany vs. Turkey @ 2:45PM ET

Of the eight teams that reached the Quarter-Finals, none was more of a surprise than Turkey.  After being soundly whipped by Portugal in their first outing, the Turks limped out of the gates against host nation Switzerland in the second match and went into halftime trailing 1-0.  What has happened since then is the stuff of legend.  The Turks levelled the score shortly after the half, and won it thanks to a dynamic run by Arda Turan in the final seconds.  In the following game, against the favored Czechs, Turkey trailed 2-0 with only 17 minutes remaining before embarking on a remarkable comeback which saw deputy captain Nihat score twice in the final 6 minutes to make it 3-2 and send the Turks to the Quarter-Final. 

In the aftermath of the game against the Czechs, some pundits started throwing around words like destiny.  The Turks were only too happy to oblige this zeal by fanning the flames with another heart-stopping comeback.  After 119 minutes of scoreless soccer in the Quarter-Final, Croatia took the lead through Ivan Klasnic, seemingly assuring their advancement to the Semis.  But 2 minutes later, on the last kick of the game, Turkish sub Semih Senturk lashed home a brilliant shot, paving the way for a 3-1 penalty victory.

With the Semi-Final looming, however, Turkey’s incredible run may be at an end.  Of their 23 man squad, the Turks may have as few as 13 players available for the game against Germany.  Influential attacking midfielders Arda Turan and Tuncay Sanli will both miss the game through suspension, as will goalie Volkan Demirel, who recieved a red card against the Czechs for shoving striker Jan Koller.  Compounding the issue are injuries to star striker Nihat, midfielder Emre, and central defender Servet Cetin.  By contrast, Germany has a full roster of players at their disposal.  Even with both squads at full-strength, the Germans have much more depth than the Turks.  With half of the Turkish squad missing, the advantage appears nearly insurmountable.

The Turks’ best hope lies in the fact that Germany have not produced a win of anything approaching the class that had been expected of them prior to the tournament.  Ze Germans scraped wins against Poland and Austria and were soundly beaten by Croatia in the tournament’s weakest group.  Their win over Portugal, against whom they always seemed on the back foot, looks more impressive on paper than it did in practice, but if they can continue to counter-attack effectively they will seriously test the makeshift Turkish defense. 

Woe be it to anyone who has bet against the Turks so far, but in this much-weakened state I just can’t back them against a team as tested as Germany.  Michael Ballack is excelling in the midfield, and, despite playing out of position, the mercurial Lucas Podolski looks like a threat to score with every touch.  If both continue to play well, the Germans should lock this up convincingly, but I hope the Turks prove me wrong.  And honestly, if they do pull off another miracle win, will anyone really be that surprised?

Prediction: Germany 2-0 Turkey

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Thurs 6/26 - Spain vs. Russia @ 2:45PM ET

In the only rematch of the tournament, Russia will be looking to avenge their 4-1 opening round loss to Spain.  In that game Russia was picked apart by the creativity of the Spanish midfield and the incredible off-the-ball play of David Villa, who netted a hat trick.  After being chewed out by their brilliant journeyman coach Guus Hiddink, the Russians started to show signs of life, edging out a 1-0 victory over Greece in their second game.  However, there were still plenty of lingering questions about the team heading into the last group game against a veteran Swedish team.

Those questions were cast aside as star Russian playmaker Andriy Arshavin made his return from suspension after missing the first two games, spearheading the team’s demolition of Sweden in a 2-0 game that could easily have ended with another four goals for our Comrades from the former Eastern Bloc.  Not content to rest on their laurels, the Russians stepped it up another gear against the Dutch.  While the Netherlands had turned in the tournament’s most exciting attacking permances in their group stage games, they looked powerless as Arshavin and the Russians gave them a taste of their medicine, exploding for a 3-1 overtime victory in a game which they controlled from beginning to end.

For their part, the Spanish have played consistently solid soccer.  The tedium of their last game can be blamed on the negative tactics of the Italians, and though Spain have thus-far only displayed true killer instinct against the Russians, they have always seemed to have the self-belief that they can win — a characteristic too often lacking in teams fielded by the perpetually underperforming nation.  David Villa has been stellar, and while Fernando Torres has been criticized for only scoring once, his mazy runs have opened up space for Villa and been a nuisance for opposing defenders.

Spain’s biggest question marks revolve around their lack of physicality, particularly in the midfield where only Marcos Senna has any size to throw around.  While the Russians aren’t a particularly large team either, their speed and aggressiveness in contesting every ball could be the difference maker in this game.  Both teams play flowing football, but the Russians play a more complete game, dropping back in defense to suffocate the opposition before quickly and seamlessly transitioning to attack.  If Russia improves its abysmal defense against set-pieces I think they have what it takes to get revenge on Spain and make their first cup final.

Prediction: Spain 1-2 Russia