The Meaningful Collateral

I hope that the NFL will learn something from Freddie Prinze Jr’s career.  Remember when you couldn’t go five minutes without seeing a teen flick staring the actor of Puerto Rican, German, Jewish and Italian descent.  He was everywhere; he had roles in I Know What You Did Last Summer, AND I Know What You Did Last Summer 2.  He starred in She’s All That, for Christ sakes and was a mischievous Jessica Biel- loving stud in Summer Catch.

He married Sarah Michelle Gellar; he knocked Julia Stiles and her busted grill in Down To You.  Freddie Prinze the Junior was late-teen movies… he was THE EVENT.  Now what, a Scooby Doo movie here and there, and some other crap I have never heard of, and he studies martial arts and collects comic books according to Wikipedia.  Beware NFL suits; heed the cautionary tale of F.P.2.

You are probably thinking, “LWN have you gone mad?”  My response, “not today dear readers.”  Think about it, the NFL is undoubtedly on top with regard to professional sports in America, but Major League Baseball was too at one point, so was the National Basketball Association.  At some point, these other leagues made their fans stabby, which in turn made those leagues less valuable.  Whether that was actually true or not, it was perceived to be devalued, much like Freddie Prinze Jr. when he signed on to do Scooby Doo 2:  Monsters Unleashed.

The NFL is toeing the line on numerous fronts.  If they are not careful, the same fate will hit them too. Here is a short run down of the pitfalls I can potentially see.

1.  Market Saturation- America is a saturated market when it comes to football.  The product has been diffused in this market and the NFL needs to find new ways to generate revenue.  Also, market saturation can depend on other factors; competition, price and technology.  We all know the Arena League is not the problem so competition is out of the question, except for the last few people in the south that refuse to accept the NFL into their hearts because they still follow the Student-Athletes of the SEC.

Technology is something I have discussed below in my television min-rant.  Typically I feel the NFL does an adequate job with regard to technological advances, but mainly they leave a lot of that up to the media outlets.

Price is bad news.  The NFL is pricing them out the market.  The average NFL ticket is around $70 per ticket.  So if you want to take your family to a game, its $280 in tickets alone for a regular season game.  Then factor in gas, and food and parking.  That’s about $330 afternoon event (calculated conservatively).  Also, have you been to an NFL game recently?  Fans in the parking lots are out of control, and in some cases (The New York Jets & Concourse D), they are worse in the stadium.  Some parents are probably pretty apprehensive about bringing their kids into that kind of environment. 

2.  Cheating- That Patriots “scandal” has really hurt the league’s image in many fans eyes.  Cheating and gambling scandals have rocked sports before.  Does anyone remember when the NIT was the top college basketball tournament?  How about the Chicago black sox?  As the Tuesday Morning Quarterback pointed out all season this problem has no resolution yet.

3.  Television rights- While many want to see the games they want to see, if your home/apartment faces two out of the four cardinal directions, you can’t get Direct TV.  The technology exists to open it to all viewers, find a way to do it.  I promise I will outline my issues with Direct TV at some time when I get to it.

4.  Fantasy Football- Its popularity cannot be denied, but I know people that won’t play it anymore.  The problem with fantasy football is that fans are not creating an identity with teams.  They are creating identity with the FF league they are involved in.  Honestly, it might be decades before this actually overtakes the traditional fan, but I can see it coming down the pipe.  How many of you are guilty of rooting for the running back on your FF team, when he is bashing your real team?  Are you conflicted about it?

5.  Crime and criminals- While I think it’s funny sometimes, mainstream America isn’t so cool with it.  Personnel policies make the NFL look like a bunch of commie reds, but in the end there is not really another option at this point.  I like the idea of holding teams responsible for their players, but no one seems to be interested in doing so.  I have been of the opinion that teams need to lock their players in a hotel on Sunday night to start.  It works at the college level. 

6.  Everything is now an “Event”-  Madden-olidy I will let slide since that is EA Sports bag, but come on a schedule release “event,” combine “event,” draft preview “events,” draft “event,” preseason “event,”  fantasy football analyst “event***,” Super Bowl “event week.”  Everything is not a damn event and I would prefer it if the NFL and their Johnny Come Lately draft fans stay the hell out of my cave of solitude.  I hate when people start liking the stuff that I knew was cool before they knew it.

***Perhaps we will see Freddie Prinze Jr. on the ESPN fantasy football draft this season.  It’s a biiiig event after all.   

All of these items coupled with smaller issues will only compound the possible fall into a well the NFL might find itself in one day.  I am not saying that it will happen for sure, but it certainly is a possibility. 

HITS AND MISSES FROM 2007

I only really commented about two players football talent from last years’ draft, which is really odd for me.  Marshawn Lynch (Cal) and Patrick Willis (Ole Miss).  I said I was not sold on either player…and I still stand behind that about Lynch.  Willis as we all know led the 49ers in tackles this season.  Not that it mattered since he was playing defense by himself out there.  I know San Francisco is an expensive area to live in but Nate Clemens really robbed the 49ers last year with his 80 bazillion dollar contract.

Last year I had the following stats in the first round:

3 direct hits

9/10 in the top ten

26/32 overall

Just think of what my stunning accuracy would be like if I had access to all the NFL types like those big networks do!                 

MY DRAFT PREVIEW

1.  There are crapshoots, then there is crap.  The Dolphins are staring at a big pile of the later with the number one overall pick.  Personally, I would only want one of the players that is being talked about at number one overall.  His name is Glen Dorsey; he played in the SEC, and played well.  Apparently the static motions that evaluators put him through in conjunctions with possible injury concerns have moved Dorsey out of the number one spot almost for certain.  Then again, William Parcells is in charge of the Miami Mammals now and he loves large defenders. 

One thing I am certain of is that Matt Ryan is not the number one pick, but I have mentioned this before.  Ryan is the next Alex Smith.  Must I explain more?

The other two options are Jake Long and Chris Long.  I am not sold on Chris Long or Jake Long, but Jake an OT makes the most sense in the number one spot for Miami.  Why?  Because tackles are a safer pick than a prototypical defensive end in my opinion. 

*Note-  I was editing my article when the official news about Jake Long came out.

2.  St. Louis- Boy it sure is hard to find only one glaring weakness on some of these teams.  I think Dorsey goes off the board here because teams are going to start adding players that can rush the passer at all costs in the near future.  That will definitely be en vogue after the Giants got after Brady in the Super Bowl. 

3.  Atlanta-  If more of the pieces fell in place, Brian Brohm would have been selected here.  There is no denying the Falcons need a QB, but Matt Ryan is not the answer.  Since the Falcons added Turner in the offseason and seem to be happy with Jerrious Norwood, don’t expect them to go after McFadden.  Gholston is the pick here because it sure is hard to deny his combine stats.  While I did say Gholston was a work out warrior, he was still a good player in college so the pick makes sense.

4.  Oakland Raiders-  Al Davis loves a flashy home run threat.  The Raiders have a ton of weaknesses but can they really pass on McFadden who will sell tickets?

5.  Kansas City Chiefs-  Maybe Ryan here, but I doubt it.  Brodie Croyle doesn’t seem to be the answer at QB but maybe KC should focus on the glaring holes in their offensive line.  KC does have the 17th pick as well so maybe they can wait for O-line help until 17 due to the depth of lineman this year.  Chris Long will come off the board here since Jared Allen is now a Viking.

6.  NY Jets-  Rumors have the Jets trying to get ahead of the Raiders to pick up McFadden, this will probably fall apart because, well what do the Jets really have to offer besides draft picks?  We will guess here and say Ryan Clady because I don’t think New York is ready to give up on Kellen Clemens.

7.  New England-  Their team concept fits in nicely with Keith Rivers here since Rivers can make plays all over the field.  The Pats line backing corps is (Bruschi, Seau and Vrabel) is old.

8.  Baltimore-  If Matt Ryan is on the board, then he is now off the board.

9.  Cincinatti-  They need some run stuffers, they will go with Sedrick Ellis from USC here.

10.  New Orleans-  The Saints were woeful trying to cover, well….anyone.  Jason David stole the Saints money last season and played like the overpriced hack he is.  If the Saints draft Leodis McKelvin, they have a good return man so they can remove Reggie Bush from there.

11.  Buffalo-  While I am against the Bills drafting a WR in this spot, I think Devin Thomas or Limas Sweed will go here.  James Hardy is probably the best fit for the Bills, but let’s say Thomas goes here for the sake of argument.  The Bills desperately need a compliment for Lee Evans.

12.  Denver-  Everyone is saying Denver likes J. Stewart from Oregon.  I can’t imagine the Broncos taking a running back so high when they have other holes.  Jeff Otah from Pittsburgh makes sense here.  Invest in someone who might be able to keep Cutler upright.

13.  Carolina-  Derrick Harvey would make sense here.  I think Peppers will have a good season, so pairing him with Harvey on the other side might work well.  John Fox is a defensive guy after all.

14.  Chicago-  Wow, where to start.  The NFC Super Bowl representative from two seasons ago is in a world of hurt.  Maybe the Bears draft hometown boy Rashard Mendenhall here.  It makes sense; Cedric Benson has been terrible after all. 

15.  Detriot-  It’s stupid how close this team is to becoming a 40 point a game offense.  So stupid considering Kitna gets rocked every time he drops back to pass, Brandon Albert is a good pick here to solidify the O-line.

16.  Arizona-  Edgerin James is an old man, Marcel Shipp is a loser, J.J. Arrington has not panned out.  So the cards will take Jonathan Stewart who should have gone higher but he has been sidelined due to surgery which scares front office types.

17.  Kansas City-  KC can now focus on the O-line.  I think Chris Williams from Vanderbilt is a solid choice here.  I am already applauding the KC draft.

18.  Houston-  They have gone defense, defense, defense recently.  How about an offensive player, preferably a running back says LWN.  But no, the Texans go defense again and take Phillip Merling to continue to bolster their defense.

19.  Philadelphia-  The Eagles need a wide receiver.  James Hardy comes off the board here.

20.  Tampa Bay-  Ronde Barber and the secondary is not getting younger, although they have improved through drafting.  I think the Bucs take Mike Jennings, the corner from South Florida.

21.  Washington-  Daniel Snyder is full of bad ideas.  Smells like Lav Coles clone Desean Jackson.

22.  Dallas-  Jerry Jones loves Arkansas, he went there after all.  Felix Jones is still on the board and even though the cowpokes have Marion Barber, they solidify the position with Jones.

23.  Pittsburgh-  How about a physical wide out like Limas Sweed?

24.  Tennessee-  The titans don’t have that many needs, but improving their secondary might be a decent idea.  Brandon Flowers is a good corner. 

25.  Seattle-  Improving the pass rush is a good idea.  Lawrence Jackson from USC slides into this spot nicely.

26.  Jacksonville-  I would think they want a wide out, but seeing none that they desire on the board they will go for corner back Antoine Cason from Arizona.

27.  San Diego-  The Bolts will look to bolster the line after seeing most of the marquee names of the board.  Or will they go for a speed back to replace Michael Turner?  I think they take Sam Baker from USC.

28.  Dallas-  A young compliment to T.O. would be a solid choice here.  Malcolm Kelly from Oklahoma will be hoping he doesn’t slide out of the first round.  Cowboys go offense again in this spot.

29.  San Fran-  This team needs help.  They may say hell with it and slide out of the first round (if they have not already done so).  They need a WR, but there isn’t that much left on the board.  They will probably go defense in that case.  Look for them to take Jerod Mayo in this spot.

30.  Green Bay-  That secondary needs some work, but maybe they need to draft an heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers.  I would take Brian Brohm here.

31.  New York Giants-  Giants will draft based on need.  Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State or Kenny Phillips come off the board here.