So first off, a hearty ‘fuck you’ to the Washington Capitals for blowing what would have been an otherwise perfect first round for yours truly. That’s what I get, I guess, for placing my faith in a blueline prominently featuring Mr. Tom “Why do I play defense again?” Poti. Thanks as well to the Ottawa Senators who proved that, just because we think the post-season should be important, doesn’t mean a bunch of people making millions of dollars a year share our opinion. And to think, there were dozens of ‘killer instinct’ jokes just waiting for Dany Heatley to step up and not suck.

But failure is depressing - unless it’s Dallas bouncing the defending champs and Chris “roided out Jim Carey” Pronger - so let’s make a few pointed observations and then I’ll deploy my not-insubstantial predictive skills to tell you exactly what’s going to happen.

1 - Bettman and the league were 1 game away from the perfect storm. In the East, the New York Rangers finally got their shit together, ensuring the largest American market will not only be represented, but will get a healthy dose of Sidney Crosby and an exciting young Pens team. The undercard, meanwhile, should be a neat clash of styles. Philly received a warning from the league mid-season for excessive violence, while Montreal is hated by basically everybody not living in Quebec.

Out West, roll your bandwagon right up and enjoy the splendor of Detroit v. Colorado. Sure, you might say that this matchup hasn’t really been relevant since the early 2000s, but those are basically the rosters we’re getting, so it works. Several time zones away the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars looked poised to start throwing haymakers. Both teams will look to banish demons of playoffs past and the constant threat of a complete melt-down for either team should keep this one interesting.

2 - We got villains! Between Sean Avery, Steve Ott, and basically everybody involved in the Philly v Montreal matchup there are maybe 2 dozen people who legitimately deserve serious bodily harm. If Derian Hatcher drops Alexei Kovalev than we’ve got proof there is a Santa Claus, and that he’s been reading my letters.

3 - Sidney Crosby! Sure Ottawa didn’t put up a fight, and sure Evgeni Malkin might actually be MORE valuable to his team, but we don’t care about that! Crosby is one of three names that matter in contemporary hockey, and he’s still in play, baby.

4 - Fuck Detroit! Fuck Colorado too! As much as it pains me to admit, this matchup should be as good a ratings draw as the NHL can trot out. Granted, that’s like being the hottest kid at fat camp, but it’s a start!

5 - Actual hockey fans have something to watch too! Montreal and Philly should be up tempo and intense. Pittsburgh and New York should showcase premium offensive talent against one of the best young goalies in the game, but San Jose and Dallas is the sleeper. Hate, scoring and unpredictable choke-artists on both sides of the puck.

Now the winners and the losers:

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Montreal (1) v Philadelphia (6)

The Canadiens were pushed to the wire by a Boston team that almost didn’t make the playoffs. Armed with a premium power play and emerging star Carey Price in net, Les Habs struggled when Boston started banging bodies. Philadelphia, meanwhile, withstood a white-hot Capitals team and managed to keep Alex Ovechkin under wraps for large stretches throughout the series.

This series might be settled by the guys in stripes. You can BEAT Montreal. As in, if you punch them a lot they don’t play as well. RJ Umberger, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards should have a field day. I don’t know if Montreal has the cajones to go toe to toe with Philadelphia, but just ask the Ducks how things work out when you put a superior skilled line up on the power play. Carey Price will be tested physically, and I don’t think the Habs can answer.

Philadelphia in 6

Pittsburgh (2) v New York Rangers (5)

The beauty of this series, is that it ensures a pretty decent storyline into at least the conference finals. In one corner, we’ve got the run n gun Penguins and their “who cares, we’ll score one more” philosophical bent. Crosby has been good, Hossa looks like he’s paying off, but the gem has been ‘Geno Malkin. He must have rented Hoosiers about a million times while Crosby was hurt, or somebody is holding his family hostage, because he is just not the same player he was 5 months ago.

In the other corner, is a chippy New York squad with enough scoring to be scary and potentially the best netminder left in the playoffs. Jagr’s been good, they’re getting scoring out of guys named Dubinsky and Nigel, and I think I once heard John Buccigross mention Chris Drury being decent in important situations. All of that aside, this team will get as far as Henrik Lundqvist decides to take them. If you’re Swedish, you have three national heroes: Peter Forsberg, Abba and this guy.

Usually defense trumps scoring, but Pittsburgh has so much I’m reluctant. At the end of the day, the Pens have more weapons.

Pittsburgh in 7

Western Conference Semifinals

Detroit (1) v Colorado (6)

So I really wasn’t kidding when I said these teams were throwing down circa 2002 style. Adam Foote, Chris Osgood, hell, there are even relevant players like Nic Lidstrom and Joe Sakic. Peter Forsberg has kept himself in the line up. Jose Theodore is making people forget basically every game since he won the Hart Trophy with Montreal, and they’re succeeding without contributions from Paul Stasny. Sure, their greatest first round accomplishment was shutting down a man named “Marian” but in Ice Hockey, that’s actually impressive!

Detroit, meanwhile, clinched a series with both a center ice goal and a Chris Osgood shutout. Easily the most bizarre thing to happen yet this post season - the Osgood part, I mean. The usual suspects are all there - Daytsuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom - and this year’s group has a bit more snarl than usual courtesy of Dan Cleary. They were also more physically challenged during the first round, which could either be an advantage, or increase wear and tear.

I’m banking on the former. Also, the Avs feel like a paper tiger. Minnesota couldn’t punch, Detroit could very well play them off the ice. Do you want to bet on two rounds of Jose Theodore heroics?

Detroit in 6

San Jose (2) v Dallas (5)

San Jose pulled every trick they could to avoid the second round. That the conference’s second seed needed seven games to survive a Calgary team relying significantly on Owen Nolan is telling. The good is Ryan Clowe playing out of his mind hockey, Patrick Marleau seemingly awake for the first time all season, and Joe Thornton scoring important goals. Also, Jeremy Roenick seems to have embraced his new life as a third liner. The bad is erratic play, an inability to defend late leads and a goalie nearing the 50 games in a row mark.

Dallas, meanwhile, just beat the snot out of the defending Stanley Cup Champions. The much-maligned franchise is getting scoring from up and down the line up (including a pair of Stu Barnes game winners), great play from a defensive core with 4 members under the age of 24, and Marty Turco without the spectacular failures that have plagued recent seasons. On the one hand, they’re over the first round hump, on the other, the pressure is only going to grow.

San Jose has broken pieces, questions to answer. Dallas is playing their best hockey all season. The Stars might also get Sergei Zubov back at some point. As with any other Stars prediction this comes with the “unless they collapse” caveat, but they’ve got more in every facet of the game than Calgary did.

Stars in 6