Well, we’re almost to the end. I’m posting this at 3:41 AM, and I take quite a bit of solace in knowing that 14 hours from now, it’ll all be over.

There’s always a danger during Championship Week that bracket-makers (including the Committee) will lose touch with reality. A team winning two or three nationally-televised games can sometimes make huge leaps in the seeding, even when they may not deserve it. We saw the most egregious example of this two years ago, when Syracuse won the Big East tourney, and went from being an outside-shot bubble team to a 5 seed in the span of four days.

Do we have similar situations this year? Yes…yes we do. Let’s delve, after the jump.

First, we start with the East Bracket:

Despite the close call against Virginia Tech, UNC maintains the #1 overall seed, and takes on the play-in game winner of Coppin State and Mt. St. Mary’s. Incidentally, the NCAA announced on Saturday that the play-in game participants will be announced at 3:30 PM on Sunday, a full 2 1/2 hours before the selection show. If UT-Arlington wins the Southland, then you can expect Coppin State and MSM in this game. If Northwestern State wins, they’ll slot into MSM’s slot.

Elsewhere in this bracket, Georgetown nabs the final #2 seed, BARELY edging out Wisconsin.I think the political undercurrents will ensure Georgetown keeps this slot, but I think Wisconsin deserves it more. They’re here as the 3 seed however, so they at least get a chance at redemption. Arkansas rises all the way up to an 8 seed. Oregon is one of the last four in, but moves up a seed due to protection conflicts.

On to the Midwest Region:

Tennessee is hanging on to the last #1 seed by a thread, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Texas or Kansas in that slot. The Tennessee loss to Arkansas wasn’t necessarily bad, but it was symptomatic of a larger problem with the Vols — they’re simply not playing that well right now. Elsewhere,  Connecticut grabs the last 4 seed, Stanford seems firmly ensconced on the 3 seed line, and West Virginia maintains a 7 seed.

Next up, the South Region:

Memphis did nothing to lose their #1 seed, so they keep it. I’m not really comfortable with Duke as a 2 seed (again, I think Wisconsin deserves to be on that line), but the Blue Devils have too good a resume to ignore. Clemson is the big winner here, moving up to the 4 seed. Yes, that’s somewhat inflated, but I imagine the committee will be looking to reward the Tigers, regardless of what happens in the ACC Title Game.

Finally, time for the West Region:

UCLA is firmly in the field as a #1 seed. Kansas probably has the best chance to move up and grab Tennessee’s slot, which might mean that either Texas or Tennessee could end up as the 2 seed in this region. Pittsburgh’s Big East tournament victory nets them a 4 seed. Again, this is somewhat inflated, but given the Syracuse precedent from a couple years ago, I think that projecting Pitt on the 4 line is wholly reasonable. Indiana is another interesting case — they were 14-4 in the Big Ten, but they’ve finished terribly, they don’t look good, and several teams have zoomed past them on the S-Curve. I think a 7 is their seeding floor, and wouldn’t be shocked to see them at a 6 (or even a 5).

NUMBERS

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Last 4 IN: Villanova, Arizona, Oregon, Ohio State

Last 4 OUT: Illinois State, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Mississippi

CONFERENCES

Big East: 8

Big 12, Pac 10: 6

Big 10, SEC: 5

ACC: 4

A-10, WCC: 3

MWC, Sun Belt: 2