For the first time since the bracketology process started in early February, I feel a bit of a calm coming over me. The 1 seeds and 2 seeds appear to be generally stable. The 3, 4, and 5 seeds are (for the most part) going to come from the same group of teams. And the upsets we’ve had so far in the mid-major conference tournaments have removed the odious necessity of including some of these awful bubble teams.

However, all is not well in Pepperland. There are still a host of bad teams out there. I feel decent about the at-large field up until the final nine slots…after that, a sense of fear and loathing overcomes me. Brackets, and discussion, after the jump.

Anyway, let’s start out  in the East, as we always do, with our overall #1 seed:

North Carolina gets the play-in game, and takes on the winner of Alabama State (SWAC) / Sacred Heart (NEC).  Butler collects a 4 seed — that may be a bit high for what they deserve, but given the historical trend of the committee to recognize highly-ranked teams, it’s not a stretch (even though Butler had a much better resume last year and only got a 5 seed). Elsewhere, Villanova breaks the traditional conference separation situation due to 9 teams from the Big East (again). Syracuse gets in, which is appalling. Oklahoma gets a 7 seed mostly due to everyone below them sucking so bad.

Now to the South Region, home of our #4 overall seed:

Memphis gets the last #1 seed, although ironically, they have the best chance to move up to a higher overall seed ranking due to the other three #1 seeds actually having to play in competitive conference tournaments. Stanford is teetering on the edge of a 3 seed, but stays as a 4 for now. Oregon squeezes into the field as an 11 seed.

Let’s switch gears and go to the Midwest Region:

Tennessee still looks like a solid #1 seed at this point. Indiana probably drops no lower than a 5, which is where they are in this bracket. Arizona barely makes it in, as does Ohio State. Xavier should probably get a 2 seed, but their conference affiliation nets them only a 3. Marquette as a 6 seed has the greatest chance for improvement.

And finally, we head out west to our final region:

UCLA gets the final #1 seed, although I have them 2nd overall in this bracket’s S-Curve. Louisville could move up to a 2 if they make a run to the Big East title and Texas (or Kansas) stumbles early in the Big 12 Tourney. Gonzaga seems safe in the 6-7 range. South Alabama probably has a strong enough resume to get in despite their loss to MTSU.

NUMBERS

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Last 4 IN: Villanova, Ohio State, Arizona, Syracuse

Last 4 OUT: Florida, Mississippi, Illinois State, New Mexico

Conferences:

Big East - 9

Big 12, Pac 10 - 6

Big 10, SEC - 5

ACC - 4

WCC - 3

Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Sun Belt - 2