My apologies to the bracket crowd - I’m far, far behind where I normally am this time of year in terms of bracketology. Unfortunately, this is a terrible year to be behind in — the brackets look even more out of sorts than usual.
Anyway, enough delaying. Here are the brackets, as of the games of Sunday, February 10…after the jump.
EAST REGION
Comments: At this point, Duke has the upper hand for a top seed, and if Memphis stumbles at any point, Duke will be the odds-on favorite to take the #1 overall seed. Arizona is a strange team to figure out — they’re only 14-7, but their RPI is godlike, and they’ve got the added consideration of having lost their coach early on in the year. Elsewhere — what to do with Drake? If they go the rest of the year with only one loss, I could see their seed being as high as 4, but that’s probably the ceiling. Finally, Georgetown has an outside shot at a #1 seed, but they really can’t afford any more losses.
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SOUTH REGION
Comments: Memphis is the #1 overall seed at this point. Stanford is the weakest of the #2 seeds. Not much to say about this part of the bracket.
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MIDWEST REGION
Comments: I think Kansas is pretty safe as a #1 seed. North Carolina, UCLA, and Tennessee all go back and forth in my head as #2 seeds. In this bracket, UNC ended up as a 2 seed, but that will likely change by this time next week. Elsewhere, I’m not sure where to place Butler — normally I wouldn’t place a mid-major at a 3 seed, but given their success last year, and their sustained pollwork so far this year, they could warrant being on that line. .
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WEST REGION
Comments: UCLA gets the last #1 seed…and then promptly loses to Washington right after I finish the bracket. Oh well. Wisconsin at this point still has a hold on a 4 seed, and could easily move up…or down. Texas A&M has plenty of opportunities to move up. Tennessee could warrant a #1 seed if they can beat Memphis and win the SEC Tournament.
Last 4 in: Oklahoma, Oregon, UNLV, Miami
Last 4 out: Syracuse, St. Joseph’s, NC State, Houston
BREAKDOWN BY CONFERENCE
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 10: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Big Ten: 5
A-10: 4
WCC: 2
How dare you leave out Syracuse! Jim Boeheim has done wonders with this team… oh wait, I thought I was from Ithaca for a second. Never mind. Here’s to The ‘Cuse bowing out unceremoniously on Day One of the Big East Tournament… where’s Gerry Mac to save you now!?!
I’m just not going to say anything here. It’s safer that way.
Just wanted to point out that you have broken a cardinal rule of Bracketology: seeding based on past success. I certainly understand that a team with tradtion, a history of winning and large fan base has influence over the selection committee in regards to generating revenue. But to seed Butler as a #3 and use “…their success last year” as criteria goes against the entire selection process. Butler is a very good team THIS year and needs to earn that seed on their own. They are probably just a little to high for a #3 but look real solid to be in that 4-5 range.
Well, in my defense, the committee breaks lots of their own cardinal rules every year…like that whole “no collusion” thing (ahem…Virginia and Littlepage).
In a roundabout way, the past success of a team always impacts their seeding — because past success affects the polls, and there’s a very close correlation between the final AP poll numbers and the seedings that each team gets. Perception does play an impact in this stuff.
Regardless, I wasn’t totally comfortable placing Butler as a 3 seed…but at this stage, it’s hard to justify moving Notre Dame, UConn, Wisconsin, or Wazzu ahead of them. If Butler beats Drake, and doesn’t lose more than one more game, that’ll clinch at worst a 4 seed for them. If they don’t beat Drake, I think both sets of Bulldogs probably end up in the 5-6 range.
I love Syracuse. Just love them.
I think that is a fair assesment of Butler. That bracket buster game against Drake will be huge because it will give the doubters (or supporters) all the fodder they need in regards to Butler’s seed. I still think they are a 4 or 5 because they aren’t a BCS school who will travel their fans. I can’t see the committee giving them the nod over Notre Dame or Wiscy. Just ask Mark Few about seeding…actually don’t.
I am not disagreeing that past success is on the minds of the selection committee but it shouldn’t be a factor in seeding or in an overall selection to the tournament. Do I think that ever actually happens? Unfortunately not…