2-3-1 is not a fantastic week, but at least I have recovered from the IU loss, but not so much from the UB win. I will get to this in a bit. It is now apparent that the “old” IU football team has shown up and there is now zero predictability with this team. I could imagine a fine throttling from the Penn State Nittany Lions this week, I could imagine a heartbreaking loss (circa 2004), I could see IU handling the game and winning. It’s all too confusing. I know its only two losses, but the only thing worse than watching that game was the horrific job done by the Big Ten Network broadcasting it. It seems that the “yellow line guy” and the “down and distance guy” were outside the production truck smoking a doobie for half the game. This was apparent to me because I had to go to a bar to watch it. So there was no volume and I had to guess what down it was half the time. If the BTN wants me to pay a premium price for their network as a cable subscriber, then the production value must be greatly increased. More after the jump.

Let us start in the Big East this week. South Florida is the new darling (or villain) in college football. Your view of them probably depends on if you are a college blue blood or not. Using the previous information, I can probably guess where your political allegiance lies. South Florida is bad for the big business bowls, it’s not sexy to the NCAA, they have people in Norman, Lincoln, Los Angeles, Austin, etc in an uproar. As the great Thermocaster pointed out, show me how they don’t belong this year.

South Florida @ Rutgers +2.5

As far as analysts go, they say this has been a disappointing season for the Scarlett Knights, LWN says, if you have 1 (one) bowl win in a century, let’s not go insane. Many have written Rutgers off this year, but I think USF’s magic carpet ride comes to an end this week in the armpit of America. Mike Teel has played fine, Ray Rice is fast and danger like my favorite rapper Ill Mitch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcRMN8wMq5o&mode=related&search=

This will not be a pushover for the Bulls. No way, no how. Ray Rice has 818 yards rushing this year, with 13 TDs. Mike Teel has 1,817 yards passing with 12 TDs to only 6 INTs. Rutgers also has two Wide outs that can produce. Tiquan Underwood has been something of a surprise this year with 34 grabs for 675, while Kenny Britt is right behind him with 640 yards and 4TDs.

South Florida on the other hand, uses Matt Grothe WAY too much. He is the team leader in rushing (346) by a hair over a bevy of running backs, and has thrown for 1,121 and 7 TDs.

Keys to the game- brought to you by my 1996 Subaru Impreza

For South Florida

Play keep away from the Rutgers team, which is averaging 37.2 points a game. They must continue to disguise their coverages, which is what helped them against a schizophrenic West Virginia squad. On offense, they need to pound the ball and find the open routes in the flat and hook zone. I would suggest some play action to freeze the linebackers which will be pumped up for a nationally televised game.

For Rutgers

Ray Rice must factor into the game. South Florida has some speed and a good pass rush on defense. i would suggest not trying to go sideline to sideline against their defense. Instead, I would employ a ground and pound offense and mix that up with some misdirections and counters to Rice. Getting the ball inside the 30 is a must. I sense a good game from Kicker Jeremy Ito.

On defense, I would play a lot of nickel schemes and have someone spy Grothe. This kid is smart and will run when forced to. This is obvious by his rushing stats, most of which come when the coverage is good. I think the emotion leads Rutgers to the cover, probably the win.

Ito kicks a late field goal to lift Rutgers over USF

Rutgers 37 - South Florida 36

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Michigan -2.5 @ Illinois: This looks like a freebie to me. What happened to the 0-2 Michigan team? They started vanquishing opponents not in D-IAA and the PAC-10. You knew they were not going to go away that easy. Also, I don’t seem to care that Illinois is resurgent. Michigan’s defense is coming on. Mike Hart might be hurt, but I don’t think it will matter. Rashard Mendenhall was bottled up last week against Iowa, and against a better defense I think he will see the same result. Juice Williams will make a few plays, but not enough to win.

Interesting side note, I had no idea Michigan still played road games.

Michigan 35 - Illinois 21

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AND NOW FOR MYSouthern Miss -3.5 @ Marshall:

For those of you not watching Sunday Night Football, check out this doozy on Sunday night. Marshall blows this year. Bob Pruitt, Chad Pennington, ByronLeftwich, Randy Moss where have ye gone? Marshall determined that leaving their cozy conference, the MAC, was a good idea. Not so fast. Marshall is 0-6 including a loss to D-IAA power New Hampshire, which was at home. I am very familiar with teams like this. They have given up after the loss to West Virginia. Looking at their statistics, they only lead their opponents in one category, passing yards, where they have eked out opponents by less than 200 yards.

Southern Miss, while considered a possible BCS bowl buster early in the year has played better competition on the whole and play extremely well in the second and fourth quarters when the game is on the line. The scoring production when breaking it down by quarter is staggering.

Score by Quarter	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Southern Miss	13	69	20	53	155

Look for a slow start by the Eagles, then they turn on the juice in the second quarter to pull within 7. Marshall then comes out flat in the second half, and Southern Miss turns this into a laugher late in the game.

Southern Miss 45 - Marshall 24

*Side Note, I don’t think the over (56) will hold.

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Buffalo @ Syracuse -3.5: Back in the late 1900’s, early 2000’s this game was not a question. UB students from Central New York would make the two hour trek to the Carrier Dome to watch this one as SU fans, not UB fans. The change of precieved football power has shifted (maybe) in Central/Western New York. Buffalo has come from nowhere, like an October Lake Effect snow storm to lead the MAC East. While this is great news, bad news came to UB fans from an unlikely place- Lincoln, NE. If Nebraska fired AD Steve Pederson after giving him an extension in late summer, do you think they care that they will owe Bill Callahan millions if they let him go at season’s end? Negative!Why does this matter to UB? Because their head coach is Turner Gill of course. Gill interviewed for the Nebraska job in 2004 and is still beloved by the cornshucking faithfull. To me, this is a concern as he has turned some heads in the local and national media this year.  Also, enter interim Nebraska AD Tom Osbourne and we have a recipe for disaster. Osbourne was T. Gill’s coach back in the hey day of Nebraska football. My hope is that the fanbase makes sure that Tom goes after Bo Pelini and leaves my coach alone. UB needs another 2-3 years of Gill’s recruiting expertise to build this program.

Back to the game. Hilarity ensued when the Rochester Democrat And Chronicle showed a picture of coach Gill when breaking down the SU-UB game. ONLY IT WAS NOT TURNER GILL, but UB assistant Juan Taylor. They also misidentified UB running back James Starks as a Junior, but he is a Sophomore. This paper is published near the University at Buffalo, get it straight. That goes for you too EA sports. This year’s College football game completely misrepresented UB stadium and does not even have the correct roster!

This is not Turner Gill.

Does UB have a chance? Yes, but does this game also mean something to Syracuse? Yes. If SU loses to the former/sort of dormat of the MAC, Gregg Robinson will be looking for a new job posthaste. I still think SU has too many athletes, UB’s secondary can’t cover them. UB loses, Turner Gill’s stock plummets. Prove me wrong UB.

Buffalo has not beaten anyone outside of the MAC this year, that trend continues.

*Side Quote-  “There’s a bunch of kids walking around our campus with Syracuse gear on. I bet there aren’t any kids wearing Buffalo stuff at Syracuse.” — senior center Jamey Richard.

Syracuse 42 - Buffalo 10

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Penn State -7 @ Indiana: Well, the white knuckling has begun in Bloomington. After a terrible showing against Sparty, look for this trend to continue against the Lions. Penn State is hitting their stride and will continue this weekend against the Hoosiers. I foresee them channeling some DiNardo offense this weekend. IU will not be able to run the ball against Penn State, since they have not run the ball well against anyone. Anthony Morelli has looked okay the last week and PSU won’t miss Austin Scott since anyone can run on IU because the Defense is not in the mood to tackle, well anyone.IU will try and try to force the ball to Hardy with some success, but not enough. Kellen Lewis will run for his life all day, Penn State puts it away before the half.

Penn State 32 - IU 7