For those of you who didn’t see the 6:00 PM SportsCenter on Wednesday, you missed ESPN College Football “expert” Kirk Herbstreit doing one of those silly Sponsor-of-the-week segments. This one was the ‘Miller Lite Good Call/Bad Call’, where Herbie takes staged questions from Soccer Mom and uses his deft wit and hair to explain how stupid the average college football fan is.
Wednesday’s segment focused on a couple of areas, but the main one was the BCS. After being told that nearly 70% of voters thought that South Florida would deserve a national title game berth if they ran the table, Herbstreit said it was a “bad call”. His reasoning (in paraphrased format) was that while South Florida had done some decent things so far, that a one-loss team like LSU or Oklahoma would accomplish far more throughout the remainder of their schedule than South Florida would.
So is it the truth? Or is Herbstreit once again just shilling for the big money programs? Let’s dive into the numbers, after the jump.
For comparison purposes, let’s take a look at four teams who are in contention for the BCS title game as of this week: Two undefeated teams (Boston College and South Florida), and two one-loss teams (Oklahoma and LSU).
First, let’s start with one-loss Oklahoma. Here’s their current profile, using the Sagarin calculation for strength of schedule:
| BCS | W/L | Harris | Coaches | Computer | SOS |
| 4 | 6-1 | 4 | 4 | .5500 | 67 |
Now, based upon the Sagarin ratings, here’s Oklahoma’s remaining schedule strength, including an average of their opponents’ ratings. I’ve also gone ahead and made adjustments to the ratings based upon home/away games.
| @Iowa State | 120 |
| TEXAS A&M | 51 |
| BAYLOR | 113 |
| @Texas Tech | 17 |
| OK. STATE | 40 |
| Total Avg. | 68.2 |
So in other words, the five remaining opponents for Oklahoma average out to be the 68th best team in college football.
Now let’s take a look at LSU’s current profile:
| BCS | W/L | Harris | Coaches | Computer | SOS |
| 4 | 6-1 | 5 | 5 | .9300 | 12 |
And LSU’s remaining opponents:
| AUBURN | 18 |
| @Alabama | 39 |
| LA TECH | 109 |
| @Ole Miss | 80 |
| ARKANSAS | 53 |
| Total Avg. | 59.8 |
LSU definitely has a better case than Oklahoma. Their future opponents are rated about 8 spots better than OU’s, and their current SOS is miles ahead of the Sooners.
Now, let’s move on to the undefeated teams. First, Boston College:
| BCS | W/L | Harris | Coaches | Computer | SOS |
| 3 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | .8200 | 80 |
And Boston College’s remaining opponents:
| @Virginia Tech | 19 |
| FLORIDA ST. | 39 |
| @Maryland | 37 |
| @Clemson | 44 |
| MIAMI | 65 |
| Total Avg. | 40.8 |
The Eagles may be the most over-ranked team in the top 10. Despite quite a bit of computer love, their strength of schedule so far is highly questionable.
Finally, let’s check out South Florida:
| BCS | W/L | Harris | Coaches | Computer | SOS |
| 2 | 6-0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 31 |
And South Florida’s remaining opponents:
| @Rutgers | 35 |
| @UConn | 30 |
| CINCINNATI | 20 |
| @Syracuse | 112 |
| LOUISVILLE | 49 |
| @Pittsburgh | 95 |
| Total Avg. | 56.8 |
Hmm…now isn’t that interesting? South Florida’s remaining opponent average is actually above BOTH Oklahoma and LSU. Furthermore, USF’s schedule strength to date is better than Oklahoma’s, albeit not as good as LSU’s.
The biggest problem with the WWL’s stance on these issues isn’t so much that they’re anti-South Florida — and they are — but that the opinions they state on a regular basis have a great deal of resonance with the people doing the voting in both the Harris poll and the Coaches poll. Keep in mind, this is the same Kirk Herbstreit that voted Oregon 2nd in the AP poll this week (with South Florida 5th).
The mantra was set early by Herbstreit and his cronies regarding South Florida — they’re a nice story, Jim Leavitt has done a great job, but they just don’t deserve a chance, either because of what they supposedly haven’t done so far, or won’t do in the future. But our question is simple - what are you basing this perspective on? Their current resume is better than every other team in BCS contention, and their schedule for the remainder of the season is tougher than LSU and Oklahoma.
So is it really a case of South Florida not being good enough? Or is it just a case of Herbstreit and friends (including Chris Fowler, who voted South Florida 5th in his AP ballot) keeping down the little guy?
You did not include the conference championships of LSU, Oklahoma, and BC into your equation. That adds another game against a guaranteed highly ranked opponent which is what Kirk was referring to.
Well, even if one adds in a conference championship game for these teams, it doesn’t have that great of an effect (with the exception of LSU, and I already noted that LSU has a comparable resume to South Florida).
Let’s say Oklahoma plays Missouri in the Big 12 title game. Using the current rankings, we would still only see Oklahoma’s average opponent rating rise to 59.5, which would be less than South Florida. If they played Kansas, the number only rises to 57.5 — again, slightly less than South Florida.
If LSU plays Kentucky in the SEC title game, LSU’s average opponent rating climbs slightly to 51.3 — greater than USF, but hardly as overwhelming as Herbstreit makes it out to be.
As for Boston College, they haven’t even mentioned the Eagles in this conversation. If B.C. can go undefeated throughout with their schedule, then they should be in the picture. Ironically, the ACC title game might drag DOWN BC’s resume, unless they somehow get to play Virginia Tech again.
As an Ohio State fan, I respect Kirk for his contributions to athletics and his career in broadcasting. However I believe South Flordia deserves a shot if they run the table. I thought the same of Boise State last year. Why should South Flordia be punished for winning all their games just because they are South Flordia? If another Big East team like West Virgina, Rutgers, or Louisville went undefeated, whould they not be in the championship picture? South Flordia plays the same type of schedule as all NCAA Div 1A teams. Some tough games, some cup-cakes. I think that in college football (1A only) every game matters. You HAVE to go undefeated to be guarenteed a shot at the title. Now if every team in the NCAA has at least one loss, then maybe South Flordia does not deserve to go (depending on who they lose to of course). I’m just glad to see a team of nobodys, people Flordia, Flordia State, Miami, LSU, USC, etc. etc. etc. didn’t want come along and rub it in all their faces. Go Bulls. And thats from a Buckeye fan.
this is a joke. These guys have to push the SEC and Big-10 because of the money to be made off them being on TV all the time and in the BCS. Fact is, USF did what UF could not, beat Auburn, except on the road, whereas UF lost to them at home.
In fact, in the last 5 games between the SEC and Big EAST, the SEC has managed a whopping ONE victory. ONE. That was Kentucky’s last second win over Louisville earlier this year. So the SEC team who beat No. 1 LSU beats middle of the pack Big East team Louisville provides the conference’s only win in the last five tries. Nice going best conference ever.
Dan, you hit the nail on the head. But again, the SEC has been tirelessly promoted as the absolute best that college football has to offer, so we can’t let little things like actual GAMES get in the way of that, can we?
And the Big Ten this year is really terrible. I give Ohio State credit for winning all the games they’re supposed to win, but they’ve only got two victories over Division I-A programs with winning records this season. One is Purdue, and the other is Northwestern (who could just as easily be 2-5 right now).
Here’s the problem with those numbers. The Big East, which constitues the bulk of USF’s SOS from the computers, doesn’t play enough good OOC foes to get a gauge. So we’re left looking at a conference in itself that has good records, but may not be worth much. Is Cincy good? Don’t know, haven’t seen’em play anyone. But their record sure is. Is West Virginia good? Don’t know, they’ve played a schedule equal to BC apart from the USF game, that they lost despite USF giving them four turnovers. Their record looks great though. Is Rutgers good? Eh, no. I think we can just say no there. But again their record says otherwise. Plus the SOS and computer rankings are pretty horrible until the end of the season. Not enough data to get a good idea yet. Even their makers will tell you that.
The computers are just looking at those records. If you actually watch the games though, it’s a whole different story. Does anyone honestly believe USF would be undefeated if they played in the SEC? Sure a win over Auburn is neat, but considering Auburn also lost to crappy Mississippi State it doesn’t mean a whole lot to me.
This isn’t to crap on USF’s parade. It’s to say your conference is crap. Sorry, but that’s what I see pretty clearly. A one loss Pac 10 or SEC team should definitely move ahead of USF. No question.
But hey it’s hip to like the underdog and act like they are better than they really are, ignoring the obvious evidence out there. That USF plays really, really sloppy football. That this is the same team that lost multiple games last season because of that sloppy play. That the Big East is clearly a weak conference this year. Funny how BC, V-Tech and Miami leave and BOOM all of a sudden several Big East schools get three or four fewer losses than they used to and supposedly rule. Just coincidence I guess.
All this crying is getting annoying. As if it’s the fault of SEC schools that their conference is clearly superior with many great teams. And it pains me to say that as an ACC fan, but it’s the obvious truth.
You do realize that USF has beaten West VA twice in the last 8 games. They destroyed a UNC team that South Carolina only beat by 8 and Miami lost to. They beat Auburn at Auburn in a game where their field goal kicker missed FOUR field goals.
Nobody has two better wins than South Florida.
It is not even an argument. If USF runs the table, they are going to play for it all. To suggest otherwise is just absurd.
They have one of the best scheduels in the country. If that schedule was played by Oklahoma or USC — and they were undefeated — they would be the undisputed #1 team in the country. The only reason we are have a debate is because its South Florida. The debate isn’t about S.o.S’s or conferences, its about whether USF is for real.
I bet the BLOW out Rutgers.
35-17 South Florida with a late Rutgers TD. These guys are on a roll.
Wade:
Your argument is as flawed as Herbstreit’s, and it’s the classic “The Big East stinks because we say so” without doing research.
Big East plays no one? Cincinnati beat Oregon State by 31. You remember Oregon State, the same team that just won at Cal? Anyone recall the fact, if the Bears won, Cal would be the best team in the country now?
South Florida won at Auburn. Anyone remember them winning at Florida, the national champs? Anyone care about them being 17th in the first BCS standings? You can honestly diss the Auburn because it lost to Mississippi State? Fine. Auburn’s not a good team. Neither is Florida because it lost AT HOME to them. And LSU is awful because it needed a few miracles to beat a bad Gator team at home. By this logic, Mississippi State is the best in the league.
This is more a problem of the big schools (SEC in general) not wanting to play the Big East teams. And why would they, watching the results so far? No, WVU’s sked isn’t the best in the nation, but it did win at 4-2 Maryland. No, Louisville has disappointed, but did anyone watch the Cards play a terrible game at Kentucky and still nearly win? You know, the same UK team that’s already won at Arkansas and beat LSU?
Please tell me the heavies the SEC has played out of the league. We applaud LSU crushing Virginia Tech. That win alone may get the Tigers into the national title game. But what of the other schools? Florida? Troy, FAU, FSU, Western Kentucky? South Carolina? SC State, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Lafayette?
You want something fair and equitable to this system? Tell the SEC President to stop being petty and push for a playoff like he did before the U prezzes made him pull back. HE has the power, not them.
This argument the big league faithful puts forth is nothing more than hype and never based on fact, and if it’s not debunked, it will work.
Wade,
Cincy just started the season killing Oregon State. Oregon State Beat Cal. According to your west coast view that means most Big East Teams would pretty much clean up out on the west coast. That PAC-10 should stick to volleyball.
Kirk Herbstreit should lose his vote. Last year, I remember him ranking a particular major team something like seven places lower than where the other voters placed that team, which dropped that team a little further. No one knew that until the end of the season, when the votes had to be published. That was nonsense. His judgement, prejudices, or competency is quite questionable. On top of that, if he can’t do what’s right, at least he should drop his arrogant attitude.
You do realize that this guy is using the teams SOS # to say how strong they are. Hell with that logic, Whashington has a sos of top 10. By using this guys logic Washington would be a tough game in reality washington sucks.
Gamecock - Huh? Where did I use SOS numbers, except to show the strength of schedule for BC, USF, LSU, and Oklahoma?
I was using Sagarin numbers, which factor in a bunch of things in rating teams. Strength of Schedule is one of those factors, but obviously not the only one. Washington has the #1 SOS, but it’s Sagarin rating is 43.
You should go look at the ratings and see if you can figure them out: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm
You’re only looking at the USF side of things, not the whole picture. As many are trying to do now.
Yes, Cal lost to Oregon State. Think that would have happened if the Cal QB had been standing at the end? Yeah, no. Not to mention this kind of logic is crazy. Of course upsets will happen. Because Stanford beat USC do you then believe that anyone who beat Stanford could in turn beat USC? Or that Wolfford, since they beat App State, could beat Michigan? You’d be alone in that thinking.
Hmm Auburn was ranked in the top 25 to begin the season. Hey wait, aren’t USF fans pissed because the rankings give extra credit to teams in the SEC? But wait, if they hadn’t given Auburn extra credit before the season, you wouldn’t be able to tout that as a big win now and wouldn’t be ranked as high as you are! In other words, if it’s flawed, it’s HELPING USF to this point, not hurting.
I agree beating Auburn is nice enough, but for everyone to act like it’s a huge deal….well it’s going back to the anyone that beat Stanford now can beat USC argument, which is wholly invalid.
The whole “they don’t want to play us” is completely crazy. Heck West Virginia has FSU on the schedule in the next few years, and the Gator Bowl Committee was trying to set up a game in Jacksonville with FSU and either Rutgers or WV, and both Big East schools declined for next season. Not that FSU is a huge deal anymore but they likely will be when those games are played. They are given chances for OOC games, it’s not the SEC or anyone else’s fault if they turn them down.
No, WV does not have an impressive schedule by most USF fans reasoning. I’ve heard nothing from USF fans but how BC isn’t a legit team cause they play in the crappy ACC. If it’s so crappy, then beating Maryland doesn’t mean much, does it?
Nobody has two better wins than USF? Have you not heard of LSU?
The SEC hasn’t played anyone OOC?????? How about that V-Tech game? How about that Cal/Tennessee game? How about that Bama/FSU game?
Of course the SEC gets extra credit. When you’ve had three separate teams all win national titles in the same decade, you SHOULD! It’s not a promise you’re great this year, it’s logic that says you’re likely to be so. Simple stuff.
I applaud USF for what it’s done. But for ANYONE to say they deserve their ranking right now is absurd to me. They have one win that counts for anything(Auburn) and that team already has one more loss. Can you honestly tell me that if USF was in the SEC you think they’d be undefeated? Really?
Cause I’ve seen them play. And I’m betting they’d have an 8-4 season in that conference. Which is actually a complement of sorts.
As for a playoff, no never. College football has more history and tradition than almost any other sport in this country. It’s done it with polls for a long damn time, and has become more popular with every year. Why in the world would they dream of changing it? It grows and grows. Where is their incentive? There are a million other reasons I am adamant that we should have no playoff, but let’s focus on USF for now. No the current system isn’t perfect, in fact I’m much prefer the old way of conference ties to bowls and no real champ, with all the games on New Years. They’re kids for christ sake, no one said we HAVE to know who the best is.
The Big East has proven nothing so far. Point me to a win over a top team from that conference. Auburn? Not a top team, clearly. Maryland? Not even close? Who else you got? Claiming wins by proxy is lame and doesn’t fly with me. Since we don’t have any, I have to use my head and watch the teams. I’ve watched every game of college football I can for over 20 years now. I get Gameplan every year lately to keep up because I love it so much. I dont’ know everything, but I do know what I’ve seen from USF isn’t enough. Not nearly enough. I don’t see the same speed, the same depth, the same experience of the other major teams. I see turnovers constantly, and a defense that has some real playmakers and some really weak links. Doesn’t mean they can’t win a big game here or there, but it means you’d be a fool to bet on them to do it.
And face the facts I put up before, that weren’t disputed. SOS isn’t very accurate at this point in a season. Wait until it’s all done before you go crazy. And no, honestly I can say without any doubt both the human voters and the computer polls would move a one loss SEC and PAC 10 team ahead of USF at the end if that happens. For us to get either, the SEC or PAC 10 champ would have to beat multiple top 25 teams in a row to do that. You’re telling me that if USC beats three top 25 teams and wins the Pac 10 that you don’t think they’ll bypass USF? You’d be wrong. You’re telling me that if LSU wins out, then beats Kentucky in a rematch for the SEC title, that they won’t move ahead? Again, you’d be dead wrong.
Long way to go though. Let’s save the moral outrage until your team is actually screwed before yelling about what hasn’t happened yet.
Oh and I don’t have a West Coast view. Grew up loving FSU(and still do) and live in Texas. I just know good football when I see it(which hasn’t been lately with my teams).
Those strength of schedule numbers are kind of ridiculous. I know it’s not you but the formula or whatever is insane. but I would MUCH MUCH rather playing UConn (30? please) than Fl State or Clemson.
Watch the SEC get screwed again. I’ll bet LSU is shut out of the national title game because the BCS has perpetually been in love with Oklahoma. It might be Oklahoma vs. South Florida/Boston College or get this USC! in the “national championship” game. Mike Slive, Bernie Machen and other SEC bigwigs need to sprout some balls and demand a playoff! Thus, I actually kind of hope the SEC is screwed.