The Best Games of the Week

You’re not fooling us, baseball. We’re not interested in your little playoff games yet — especially not when there’s college football to be played. Love Without Nagel, as constant as the northern star, checks back in today to dissect the upcoming college football slate.

Predictions after the jump.

Two of the week’s most interesting match-ups are in SEC Country. Any fan of offense will no doubt want to turn on the South Carolina - Kentucky tilt this weekend. Historically two of the league’s bottom feeders have now ascended around the top 10. Kentucky at #8, USC at #11. Students and alumni from Vanderbilt and Mississippi State now have plenty of reason to hate South Carolina, and its not due to the always classy “Cocks” white hat circa 1994. cockshat

Darth Visor seems to have this team on the up and up regardless of who is taking the snaps. Chris Smelley, Blake Mitchell, Tommy Beecher, it doesn’t seem to matter. Since Blake Mitchell can’t seem to go to class, stop fighting bouncers, or do generally disappointing things. The only thing more important to Spurrier than his ego is winning games. Smelley probably says “yes sir” and “no sir” prior to every comment. You know the “Ole Ball Coach” loves that.

While Kenny McKinley seems to play a major role in the Gamecocks’ offense, look for them to try to get the ball to Jared Cook, the 6′5″ Sophomore. Kentucky has no one over 6′0″ in their secondary. If USC lines up in the spread it will create cover issues all day.

Kentucky is like a phoenix rising from the ashes. A somewhat surprising bowl win last year has catapulted this team to an early season juggernaut. QB Andre Woodson is putting up huge numbers — 1309 yards, 67.1 completion percentage, and most stunning of all, a 16-1 TD to INT ratio. 5′10″ Rafael Little is the star at RB who is already half way to 1,000 yards rushing. The problem that Kentucky is going to run into is the excellent secondary of South Carolina, who is only giving up 106 yards per game in the air.

Kentucky has proved it can hang with finesse and power teams (Louisville and Arkansas), but they have not played against this stingy secondary. I think Kentucky eats at their rating a little bit, but on the road against a hot team, I think South Carolina finds a way to get it done.

Kentucky 38
South Carolina 42

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ronzookNext, we travel to Baton Rouge where the baby Gators come in after a smarting loss to Auburn at the gun. They might also be down a captain as Tony Joiner decided to “steal” his girlfriend’s car from a tow yard. For those counting at home, that’s 8 Gators with legal problems in 9 months. I thought “Buddy” Zook was gone because he couldn’t control his players (or win games).

The game is at night, at LSU. The Gators have no shot winning when the final gun sounds. Don’t get me wrong, I think it will be a wonderful game, but LSU does not lose at home under the lights. Also, Florida is all speed, LSU is speedier and more powerful.

Interesting side note. I have been following the betting line of this game since it came out. On Monday, the line was LSU -7. Today it is LSU -9. This does not determine anything, except that the American gambling public is confident putting tons of money on LSU to cover the line, hence the bump. My assumption is that this is going to be one of the most physical games of the year. We may even see a rematch later this season.

Florida will score once or be set up for a score once by a gimmicky play, LSU coach Les Miles will whine since he will claim Urban Meyer “stole” his gimmicky idea and then proclaim himself Grand Overlord of College Football Head Coaches after the win. He will also moon PAC 10 commissioner Tom Hasen and tell him to kiss his strength of schedule.

Florida 24
LSU 28

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Wisconsin- Illinois is becoming almost intriguing. Not because Illinois can win in reality, but Wisconsin is letting everyone from UNLV to The Citadel hang around with them. The Badgers are NOT at home and Illinois might not fade quietly into the fices smelling pastures of Campaign-Urbana as easily as Wisconsin thinks they will. Seeing that Wisconsin has some WR injury issues, they need to establish PJ Hill ASAP and not becoming complacent with their minuscule lead that they will have at half time. This year it seems that Illinois is one of those teams that can play if you let them hang around. Wisconsin relished a win, not realizing how close they came to disaster.

The Illini have streaky Juice Williams and the impressive Rashard Mendenhall have given this team offensive life. Mendenhall is quietly averaging 122.4 yards per game an even quieter 6.4 yards per carry on the season. After seeing how the Spartans gashed the Badgers for 241 yards rushing, perhaps they should come up with a new scheme.

I would bet on the Wisconsin -2.5 line, very cautiously though.

Wisconsin 27
Illinois 20

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Other picks

Oklahoma -11 @ Texas

The Red River Shoot out! I think Texas bounces back. I don’t think they win, but you might as well throw out the record when these two meet. I think it is closer than 11.

Oklahoma 24
Texas 17

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3. AND NOW FOR MY

nagel
Wake Forest -7 @ Duke

I know Duke has played better than in recent memory, but it looks like Wake is coming back into the picture after a tough start to the season. QB Riley Skinner is back at the helm and is 50/72 passing the last two games. Wake has even played well in their loses to contenders Boston College and Nebraska. Duke has been throwing the ball around; this is good because they will make mistakes against a so-so Wake defense.

Wake 28
Duke 13

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4. Ohio @ UB +6.5

UB at home should play decent against a tired Ohio team. I’ll take UB and the points.

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5. Minnesota +13.5 @ IU

IU got smoked by Minnesota last year 63-26 at Minnesota. The good news for IU is that all of the sudden the only thing that is not working is the running game with Marcus Thigpen, which still boggles LWN’s mind. The guy runs a 4.27, GET HIM IN SPACE! This one is closer than anticipated. IU wins ugly, lets the Gophers back in the game, but wins late. Hardy and Lewis still look good.

thigpen

GET THE BALL TO ME IN SPACE!

IU 42
Minn 35

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